For the longest time I’ve held the belief (ascribed by popular wisdom) that it’s not profitable to go long when the market is in freefall.
Because stocks move in tandem with the market at a rate of 4 to 1.
This means that when the market is going up — most stocks will rise with the market. And when the market is going down — most stocks will fall.
Well, the key word here might be “most” as my results trading below the 50 MA are showing a different story all together.
So far, for my efforts putting up stocks when the market is below the 50 day MA, I’m up 9.02% — and so far this week I’m up another 6.97% for a total of 15.99%.
Here are the results:
Yes there have been weeks when the picks have been obliterated. But there have been weeks where rebound stocks simply took off without looking back.
Furthermore, if you add that to my gains this year trading above the 50 day MA, the Sunday Night Watchlist is up over 34% total for the year. A year when the market is down -1.21%!
Can I get a Yeaaahhhhhbuddddy?!
Of course, I’ve only logged 6 weeks under the 50 day MA. And six data points are hardly enough to form a rock solid conclusion. But those 6 weeks account for 30 trades — and that DOES mean something to me.
Look — when it comes to widely held notions — you have to get used to questioning them. And in the market you question these beliefs by holding your own little experiments. By seeing what works for you — and by building your trading plan from there.
So let’s keep going. We’ll see where we’re at by the end of the year — and we can draw some conclusions then!
Hopefully we’ll be rocking it even harder! And if we’re not — at least we’ll have the data we need to figure out what to do next!