I love it when the “gurus” hedge their bets! Everyone wants to call a direction — and no one wants to be wrong — at exactly the same time. This last week I have been hearing that the market might bounce from here. And maybe it will continue going down. lol. Isn’t that the state of the market 100% of the time? Well, it can also go sideways, so I guess we should mention that as well.
So you heard it here first. The market might go up, it might go down, and it might go sideways from here.
If you know anything about me you know I don’t like to predeict, ever. So I don’t. I just look at what the market IS doing and go from there.
Right now the daily, hourly AND weekly SPY charts are under their 50 day MA and for me, that means DOWNTREND! And, from my perspective, one of the best things that could happen to us is that we crash over the next few months. Just completely crash. Because that will give us so many trading opportunities. In a way that makes me think a crash won’t happen, because I know a lot of traders are waiting for it.
But I would love a return to a March 2009 market. There were so many great breakouts at that time and so many stocks trading so low. As long as you can sit on your hands (or go short) through a crash, then it’s great when it bottoms.
Anyway, like I said, both the daily and the weekly S&P are below their 50 period moving average. The monthly is the only one above it. Here are the charts:
As you can see, it’s down-down-down on the hourly. Hope no one was going long here.
Here’s the bounce possibility. Me, I’m sitting out until we get back about the 50 day MA.
Just cracked the 50 week MA, once again, not good for all the long side traders.
Finally we come to the monthly and the only chart still above the 50 period MA. Wow. I like the monthly because I can see that trendline and use it as a signal for when we are really hurting. Here’s the chart:
Good luck out there everyone!